This post is syndicated from Hard Fork, where guest contributor Marvin Liao writes on Substack
One of the benefits of the internet and modern age is the plethora of data, podcasts, books and blogs on investing. There is so much out there on trends, tactics and ideas of investing. The problem is how to filter all of this and who to believe. There are so many credible investors & gurus out there, it’s so easy to get confused. We call in “Mentor Whiplash” in the startup world.
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So one of the first rules I use is as the title of this goes: “Don’t Tell Me What You Think, Show Me Your Book.” Basically tell me how you are personally invested ie. your book as they say on Wall Street.
So my positions:
–On equity side I’m buying & adding to equity stocks TSMC, NVIDIA & SMH (Semiconductors index) on dips (I already own a bunch)
–Equity/stocks in energy but especially Oil, Natural Gas and Uranium, especially dividend generating ones like XOM,PBR,EC. I also really like general commodities like Glencore, SBSW, BHP, VALE
–BTC/ETH aka Crypto as my digital gold
–On the private and very Illiquid side, I am way overweight on portfolio-wise. The plan for 2025 is just doing some more small investments in emerging VC funds and startups focused in Robotics, Manufacturing-tech and Defensetech. Of course, I will be opportunistic on my old bread butter startup sectors of Fintech, SaaS/Enterprise software and developer tools although these will be shrinking part of my portfolio if I can help it.
Considering the environment out there & how profligate I’ve been on the spending side last year or so, I need to rebuild my buffer of cash for the rest of this year and next. As Radigan Carter says: Chaos=cash. You should have cash to survive and invest during times of chaos which we are truly in. Some real gold is probably not a bad idea either.
My investments are based on some major global trends, some of which I’ve mentioned in previous posts.
Demographic changes, there will be less people in the world, not more. Especially in the developed world.
De-Globalization as the world splits between the Global West, The Global East and the Global South. It will be a new Middle ages, a world with multiple powers unlike the Unipolar world we have been in the last 50-75 years depending on who you ask.
Growing technological growth and consequently energy requirements. More AI, more compute power, more data and tech=equals more energy needed. Good case made here: https://situational-awareness.ai/racing-to-the-trillion-dollar-cluster/
“The most extraordinary techno-capital acceleration has been set in motion. As AI revenue grows rapidly, many trillions of dollars will go into GPU, datacenter, and power buildout before the end of the decade. The industrial mobilization, including growing US electricity production by 10s of percent, will be intense.”
Put this together with Re-industrialization in the USA in the short video below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ktBjYtjs1E. Went to the Reindustrialize Summit last year and was bullish on the race to rebuild the US industrial-base. There is a great video on this event here: https://x.com/MikeSlagh/status/1809362222382035017. Net net: The US will need to grow its industrial base at least 2X over the rest of this decade. It also makes sense here because we have access to relatively inexpensive oil.
I’m showing you my book and how I’m positioning myself for the future, financially. Hope it works out. :)
